The assessment of space weather event forecasts would benefit from more nuanced approaches that take account of event intensities peaking near the thresholds used to identify such events.
Forecasting
Posted inEditors' Highlights
Relating Seismicity and Volcano Eruptions
A global study suggests that volcanic eruption forecasting and detection may be improved by examining earthquake mechanisms and clustering in combination with individual volcano properties.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
Newly Identified Instabilities Enhance Atmospheric Turbulence
New high-resolution imaging and modeling reveal the first evidence of enhanced turbulence due to gravity wave modulation of Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities.
Posted inNews
Scientists Claim a More Accurate Method of Predicting Solar Flares
Supercomputer 3D modeling of magnetic fields could help mitigate damage from geomagnetic storms.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
Ensemble Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Arrival at 1 AU
Heliospheric imaging data can be used in ensemble modeling of CME arrival time at Earth to improve space weather forecasts, treating the solar wind as a 1-D incompressible hydrodynamic flow.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
Real-time Ground Motion Estimation for Large Earthquakes
Advanced computing technology can be used to forecast ground shaking from earthquakes and provide an early warning in real time.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
Advancing Ensemble Methods in Space Weather Forecasting
A short, must-read, report for anyone developing new space weather forecasts.
Posted inEditors' Vox
Bridging the Gap Between Weather and Climate Predictions
A special collection on subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction presents the latest progress in filling the gap between short-term weather prediction and longer-term climate prediction.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
Improving Atmospheric Forecasts with Machine Learning
An efficient, low-resolution machine learning model can usefully predict the global atmospheric state as much as 3 days out.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
Space Weather Forecasting Takes Inspiration from Meteorology
Solar features analogous to major atmospheric waves on Earth could offer more advanced warning of harmful solar storms.