A new way of representing microphysical uncertainty in convective-scale data assimilation reduces biases in model states and improves the accuracy of short-term precipitation forecasts.
Uncertainty
Posted inResearch Spotlights
Improving Weather Simulations Through Increased Generality
By adding support for spatially variable velocity fields and anisotropy, the CoSMoS simulation package can more accurately reproduce physical phenomena.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
Descifrando las causas de la actividad de los huracanes en el pasado
Registros individuales de paleohuracanes extraídos de los sedimentos de islas azotadas por tormentas no muestran una clara influencia del clima en la frecuencia de los huracanes en el último milenio.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
A Novel Method for Assessing Model Sensitivity
This newly developed approach to assessing the quality of sensitivity analyses can be applied to any method without bootstrapping or additional model runs.
Posted inEditors' Highlights
A Powerful New Tool to Analyze and Calibrate Earth System Models
Polynomial chaos and Bayesian compressive sensing are applied to a land surface model to understand how large numbers of tunable parameters interact and may be optimized.
Posted inResearch Spotlights
How Vague Historical Writings Help Scientists Predict Floods
By including imprecise historical written records in their calculations, researchers were able to decrease uncertainty in estimations of future flood frequency.
Posted inScience Updates
Communicating Uncertainties in Sea Surface Temperature
Sea Surface Temperature User Workshop on Uncertainties; Exeter, UK, 18–20 November 2014