Fig. 2. Empirical probability functions of the macroseismic intensity in Italy, comparing the probabilistic peak ground acceleration (PGA) and the neodeterministic design ground acceleration (DGA) methods with the observed ground shaking. The green line (Iobs) represents observed data taken from the SHARE European Earthquake Catalogue, and the black line, (DBM104) represents direct seismic observations [Stucchi et al., 2007]. Other lines represent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (i.e., the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) [Giardini et al., 1999], SHARE10% and SHARE2—models run at a 10% and 2% probability of exceedance over a period of 50 years [Giardini et al., 2014], PGA10% and PGA2%, and NDSHA (i.e., DGA, DGA10%*, and DGA2%* [Nekrasova et al., 2014]). Note that PGA10% and PGA2% are used to form the official seismic hazard map of Italy.